weather

Environment Canada issued an extreme cold weather warning for Toronto on Thursday. Temperatures will fall rapidly this evening to lows of -20 to -25 C, or -35 to -40 C with wind chill. The extreme cold is expected to last through Saturday, or Sunday morning.

Staying warm during the cold snap is a snap if you take the right precautions. Dr. David Lowe, physician-in-chief of the 91�Թ�'s Health & Wellness Centre, gives his advice:

Layer up: To survive the trek across campus for a class, it helps to wear layer upon layer of clothing. Break out the long johns if you have them, Lowe says. And don’t forget to protect your extremities. Mittens are better than gloves, Lowe added, because your fingers share warmth.

Mittens are warmer than gloves, says Dr. David Lowe (photo by Geoffrey Vendeville)

Watch your step: Beware icy sidewalks. Take a cleared path whenever possible, Lowe says. “You should slow down while walking, just as you would driving a car. Be aware of your surroundings, the conditions, and use handrails going up stairs,” he says.

'Tis the season for boots: To find a pair that will keep you from falling, Lowe suggests checking the winter boot ratings by scientists from the Toronto Rehabilitation Institute. The research team, which includes 91�Թ� scientists, tested the slip resistance of 98 different boots and gave them a rating of one to three “snowflakes.” Only eight per cent met a minimum standard. “You put snow tires on your car in the winter. Surely you should worry about the boots you’re going to wear in the same weather,” 91�Թ� Professor Geoff Fernie, the research director at the Toronto Rehabilitation Institute, told The Toronto Star in 2016.

Choose warmth over fashion: No one likes hat hair, but frostbitten ears are worse, Lowe warns. “It's fashionable now to wear your toque year round, so it shouldn't be such a big issue anymore,” he added. “If you can wear a toque in L.A., you can do it here.”

Watch out for signs of frostbite: With wind chill between -28 and -39 C, exposed skin can freeze in 10 to 30 minutes, according to Environment Canada. Signs of frostbite include numbness, a change in skin colour and a prickling feeling, Lowe says. Joint or muscle stiffness can indicate a deeper frostbite.

Stay indoors: One of the simplest ways to beat the cold is to avoid it. In this weather, it’s best to go out only when necessary, Lowe says. If studying at home isn’t an option, find a warm and cozy spot on campus. Hot tip: the Graham Library at Trinity College on 91�Թ�’s downtown Toronto campus has three gas fireplaces.

The spots near the fireplaces in Trinity College's Graham Library are hot real estate for studying (photo by Geoffrey Vendeville)

91�Թ� group rallies to raise money for hurricane-ravaged Dominica

rasbachn — Mon, 04 Dec 2017 16:17:00 +0000

91�Թ� group rallies to raise money for hurricane-ravaged Dominica

rasbachn Mon, 12/04/2017 - 11:17

Cutline

More than two months after Hurricane Maria ravaged Dominica the country is still trying to pick up the pieces

Don Campbell

Topic

Global Lens

Environmental Science

Subheadline

It’s been more than two months since Hurricane Maria devastated the Caribbean island of Dominica, and much of the country is still reeling from the disaster.

Now, a group of faculty and students in 91�Թ� Scarborough's department of physical and environmental science and the Centre for Critical Development Studies is raising funds to support relief efforts on the island.

“By all accounts, it’s still an ugly situation,” says Adam Martin, an assistant professor in environmental science who has deep ties to the country.

“Recovery efforts have been slow, and it’s hard to get reliable information from our friends and colleagues there because the power is still down.”

Hurricane Maria, one of the strongest category 5 Atlantic storms on record, slammed into Dominica in mid-September and completely ravaged the country, destroying much of its water, communication, health, security and energy infrastructure. Reports from the island continue to paint a grim picture – not only have relief efforts been slow, the distribution of aid has been unequal.

Boiling Lake in Morne Trois Pitons National Park, Dominica

Martin, an ecologist who specializes in the physical characteristics of plants, began his connection to Dominica more than a decade ago as a young student. His research was based on the island and he formed close friendships with many researchers there. One close friend and collaborator is Elvis Stedman, who has partnered with Martin on much of his research.

“He told me he hasn’t had a fresh vegetable since the hurricane hit, and he’s hiking two hours through debris fields just to find a place to charge his cellphone so he can connect to the outside world,” says Martin.

Stedman is one of several collaborators on the island who act as guides for students from the master's of environmental science field camp course. He has also collaborated with researchers from the Faculty of Forestry for research projects on the island.

From cloud particles to global warming: the numerical predicting of weather

lanthierj — Wed, 27 Apr 2016 20:33:54 +0000

From cloud particles to global warming: the numerical predicting of weather

lanthierj Wed, 04/27/2016 - 16:33

Cutline

(photo by mrpbps via flickr)

Peter Herriman

Author legacy

Peter Herriman

Topic

Subheadline

Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences hosts alumnus Howard Barker

Whether you turn to the Farmer’s Almanac, a 24-hour weather station or an app on your phone, weather predictions are a constant source of fascination for Canadians.

For a greater understanding of the math behind the science, the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences at the 91�Թ� is hosting a talk by alumnus Howard Barker on April 28.

A research scientist in the Improving Climate and Weather Prediction Models section at Environment Canada, Barker’s lecture is entitled “Prediction of Weather and Climate: From Sub-millimetre Cloud Particles to Global Warming”.

Fields writer Peter Herriman spoke with Barker about his research and upcoming lecture.

(This interview has been condensed for length.)

How important is accurate numerical weather prediction?
If a numerical model predicts that a deluge is likely to hit downtown Toronto within the next three hours, well, little can be done about it. But with climatic change, as predicted by climate models, comes weather pattern change.

Conventional climate models cannot make detailed weather forecasts for specific regions such as, for example, the GTA. If, however, climate predictions can be used to confidently drive an Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model for several years at high resolution for Southern Ontario, we would presumably get an idea of rates of occurrences of extreme weather events, ranging from winter storms to thunderstorms to droughts, and thus when and where our infrastructures need to be upgraded or added.

How accurate were the forecasts for the weather we experienced in the winter of 2015-2016? How accurate were the “global” temperatures for winter and summer of the past year?
The weather was pretty much as expected across much of Canada. We had advance notice of the large El Nino and knew what to expect. March 2016 was the 11th consecutive month with a record high global monthly-mean surface air temperature. This in itself is a record for persistence, and is pretty much in-line with what global climate models have been predicting for the past couple of decades.

Regarding the slightly diminished rise in global surface temperatures over the past decade or so, relative to the previous decade, it appears to have been due to energy going into the deep oceans. Moreover, it seems as though mean temperature is on the rise again at a rate resembling those of the 1990s.

What’s changed in recent years for weather and climate prediction?
Beginning in about 2000, data from various platforms, most importantly satellites, have been assimilated routinely into NWP models. This operation updates the initial conditions of the model and has resulted in much improved forecasts across Canada and around the world. More, and novel, data will only aid the effort.

Likewise, representations of physical processes, such as cloud physics, convection, and turbulence, have improved over the same period and they help improve weather prediction but more so climate prediction.

The ultimate goal is to develop unbiased representations of physical processes, for persistent biases can be anathema to the overall integrity of long climate simulations.

Since the magnitude of the simulated system is truly global, it is imperative that our numerical models be assessed from a global perspective. The most cost-effective way to do this is with satellites; both research and operational satellites. There are now several geostationary satellites as well as technically advanced radars and lasers (i.e., active sensors) on polar-orbiting satellites that provide information pertaining to atmospheric profiles; as opposed to two-dimensional imagery which is what comes from conventional passive sensors.

The other important point is computers and networks that transfer information. Significant portions of many of the world’s largest and faster computers are devoted to weather and climate operations and research.

Environment and Climate Change Canada is preparing to upgrade its supercomputer, and this always benefits forecasts via improved model resolution. Moreover, the amount of data handled in both NWP data assimilation systems and century-long climate simulations is staggering large, and it is not clear if affordable technologies can keep pace with scientific and societal demands.

Is there a consensus in the world concerning the prediction of weather and climate?
Uncertainties regarding the representations of clouds and their radiative properties have been flagged, for over 20 years, as the greatest source of uncertainty facing predictions of climatic change, and the weather that will accompany it.

Also, uncertainties pertaining to both greenhouse gas and particulate emission scenarios over the next century remain high.

This means that even if our models were perfect facsimiles of Earth, their practical value would be attenuated by the fact that we cannot accurately predict how to force them with radiative perturbations that stem from human activities.

But better prediction of severe weather, like hurricanes and tornadoes, has reduced losses of lives. Advanced warnings of snow events and episodes of poor air quality can save lives as well as reduce healthcare costs.

With climate models, their not-too-uplifting predictions, coupled with myriad observations from around the globe, have finally caught the attention, and hopes, of many Canadians; witness the politicians they have elected recently.

What else will will your lecture cover?
What I will attempt to convey is that both NWP and climate prediction require, and use, some of the most advanced technologies that humanity has to offer.

In order for these sciences to realize goals, which are set ever-higher by both their own communities and society at large, continued access to advancing technologies and highly educated people are essential.

See the lecture streamed live

Peter Herriman is a writer with The Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences.

(See the original of the photo used above at Flickr)

Closure Due to Adverse Weather

sgupta — Thu, 07 Jan 2016 20:47:11 +0000

Closure Due to Adverse Weather sgupta Thu, 01/07/2016 - 15:47

URL

https://www.provost.utoronto.ca/planning-policy/cancellation-of-classes-closure-adverse-weather/

weather

Brrr! 91�Թ� doctor shares advice on how to deal with extreme cold

91�Թ� group rallies to raise money for hurricane-ravaged Dominica

Read more about the environmental science field camp

From cloud particles to global warming: the numerical predicting of weather

See the lecture streamed live

Closure Due to Adverse Weather

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